Rising Oil Prices and Supply Gaps Increase Recession Risks

Sustained oil prices above $100 a barrel are increasing global recession risks. Supply gaps now impact Indian factories and U.S. consumer spending levels.

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The conflict between the United States and Iran has triggered a significant oil shock, raising the specter of a global recession as energy supplies face unprecedented disruptions. With the war entering its sixth week and nearly 20% of global oil supplies impacted by shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, the economic consequences are manifesting in factory closures and surging production costs across multiple continents.

Kevin Kelly, CEO of Emerald Packaging, during an interview at his facility in Union City, California, on April 6, 2026. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
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