Analysts Predict Oil Supply Deficit Following Iran War
Analysts expect a 750,000 bpd deficit this year as the Iran war stalls flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Recovery remains slow despite a recent ceasefire.
The sharp reduction in global oil production resulting from the conflict in Iran is expected to push the market into a supply deficit this year, according to a poll of analysts. This shift erases previous expectations of a comfortable surplus and follows the disruption of critical flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global oil consumption. The conflict, which began on February 28 with military actions by the United States and Israel, has led to significant production shut-ins and damage to energy infrastructure.
Market experts now anticipate that demand will exceed supply by an average of 750,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026. This is a stark contrast to forecasts from last September, which predicted a surplus of 1.63 million bpd. That earlier optimism was based on strong output from producers such as Brazil and Guyana, alongside plans by OPEC+ to ease production cuts.
