EU exports to United States fell 26.4 percent in February
EU exports to the US fell 26.4% in February after a sharp January decline. The data reflects tariff impacts and high comparisons from the previous year.
European Union exports to the United States fell by more than a quarter for a second consecutive month in February, with a 26.4% drop following a 27.8% decline in January. While these figures indicate a sharp reduction in the trade surplus, economists suggest the data is distorted by comparisons to the early months of 2025, when businesses front-loaded shipments in anticipation of new tariffs.
Data from the fourth quarter of 2025 serves as a more reliable guide for the current trade environment, showing a 15% overall drop in exports. During this period, iron and steel exports fell by nearly 40%, while chemical shipments saw a massive reduction of 60% to 80%. Vincent Stamer, an economist at Commerzbank in Germany, noted that the full impact of such trade barriers often takes years to manifest.
Past episodes of tariff hikes have shown us that it takes trade flows two to three years to fully respond to new tariffs.
Commerzbank estimates that the tariffs will likely reduce the euro area's gross domestic product by 0.3% in 2026. The automotive sector has also been impacted; despite a reduction in tariffs to 15% from 25% late last year, EU car exports were 22% lower in the fourth quarter. While the share of exports to the American market fell for most major European nations, France was the only major country to see its share remain stable or grow.
In contrast, some sectors showed unexpected growth. Exports of aluminum and copper increased by 9% and 15% respectively in the final months of last year. Industry groups like European Metals explained that the United States lacks sufficient domestic capacity to meet demand, making European exports profitable even with 50% tariffs. The maritime sector also performed strongly, with ship and boat exports more than tripling in the fourth quarter. The Meyer Turku shipyard in Finland reported that the tariffs did not have a decisive impact on their operations, having recently delivered a major cruise ship to the Royal Caribbean Group.
On the legal front, the Supreme Court of the United States struck down the initial broad tariffs on February 20. However, the relief was short-lived as the administration imposed a new temporary global import levy just days later. Officials are currently working to reconstruct a tariff framework that replicates the previous agreements reached with the European Union.
