Japan economy likely rebounded in fourth quarter behind robust business spending
Japan's economy likely expanded 1.6 percent in the final quarter of 2025. Robust business investment drove the rebound following a sharp autumn contraction.
Insights:
A Reuters poll of 16 economists released on February 6, 2026, indicates that Japan 
JP likely returned to economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. The survey forecasts that real GDP expanded by an annualised 1.6% during the period, effectively reversing a sharp 2.3% contraction seen in the third quarter, which had marked the biggest decline in two years. This projected rebound is significant for the nation's near-term monetary and fiscal outlook as policymakers assess the durability of the recovery.
JP likely returned to economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025. The survey forecasts that real GDP expanded by an annualised 1.6% during the period, effectively reversing a sharp 2.3% contraction seen in the third quarter, which had marked the biggest decline in two years. This projected rebound is significant for the nation's near-term monetary and fiscal outlook as policymakers assess the durability of the recovery.
