Japan economy barely returns to growth in fourth quarter as domestic demand falters

Japan's economy grew a slight 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, missing forecasts as weak consumption and capital spending hampered recovery momentum.

Insights:
Japan's economy grew at an annualised rate of 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter, according to data released on February 16, 2026. This figure, representing a 0.1 percent increase quarter-on-quarter, came in materially below median market expectations. The weak outturn follows a revised 2.6 percent contraction in the prior quarter, signaling that recovery momentum remains limited for JP JPJP.
The data reveal that several key components of the economy underperformed during the period. The private consumption sector, capital expenditure, and exports all failed to meet expectations. These areas faced significant headwinds, including persistent cost-of-living pressures and recent tariff changes implemented by the US USUS. This environment has created a complex landscape for major domestic firms such as SoftBank Group Corp. and Tokyo Electron Limited .
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