Italy poised to exit EU deficit procedure as gap shrinks

Italy will likely exit EU deficit monitoring as its budget gap falls below 3%. Analysts warn of risks from rising debt costs and ending recovery funds.

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The government of Italy is poised to receive positive fiscal news as the national statistics agency prepares to certify that the budget deficit fell within the European Union's 3% of gross domestic product ceiling last year. This milestone, the first since 2019, may allow Rome to exit an EU disciplinary procedure ahead of schedule. While this rewards the spending restraint of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, analysts suggest the euro zone's third-largest economy faces significant fiscal risks in the near term.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits for the arrival of Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides at Chigi Palace in Rome, February 26, 2026. REUTERS/Remo Casilli
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