Iran conflict limits rate cut room for emerging markets

Oil price spikes following the Iran conflict have forced emerging market central banks to pause rate cuts. Policymakers now face rising inflation risks.

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The oil price surge triggered by the conflict involving Iran has stalled the momentum for interest rate cuts across emerging markets. Central banks from Poland to Turkey are now forced to confront rising inflation expectations and a shift toward risk aversion. This development follows a period where policymakers had finally regained optimism regarding global economic stability after the shocks of the pandemic and the invasion of Russia into Ukraine.

The Luojiashan tanker anchored in Muscat as regional tensions escalate following threats to the Strait of Hormuz during the conflict involving the U.S. and Israel, March 7, 2026. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
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