Xung đột tại Iran gây áp lực lên chi phí sản xuất toàn cầu

Các nhà máy trên toàn thế giới đang phải đối mặt với chi phí đầu vào tăng vọt và sự gián đoạn chuỗi cung ứng trong tháng 3 do cuộc chiến tại Iran, trong khi nhu cầu yếu kém đe dọa làm suy yếu sự phục hồi mong manh của ngành sản xuất. Xung đột đã làm gián đoạn các mạng lưới hậu cần toàn cầu, gây ra sự chậm trễ trong giao hàng, đẩy lạm phát giá đầu vào lên cao và làm biến dạng các thước đo tăng trưởng chính. Giá dầu West Texas Oil và Brent Crude Oil tăng cao đã buộc các nhà sản xuất phải phản ứng bằng cách tăng giá bán.

Chris Williamson, nhà kinh tế kinh doanh trưởng tại S&P GLOBAL INC, nhận định:

"Các con số PMI tiêu đề — thường là dấu hiệu của hoạt động gia tăng — đã bị thổi phồng giả tạo do cú sốc cung ứng làm kéo dài thời gian giao hàng."

Điều này đã xảy ra với chỉ số của khu vực đồng Euro. Tại châu Á, nhiều nền kinh tế đã chứng kiến chỉ số này sụt giảm, một dấu hiệu cho thấy chi phí nhiên liệu tăng cao và sự bất ổn gia tăng từ cuộc chiến đang gây ra những tổn thất nặng nề. Chỉ số Nhà quản trị mua hàng (PMI) sản xuất khu vực đồng Euro của S&P Global đã tăng lên 51,6 trong tháng 3 từ mức 50,8 của tháng 2, cao hơn mức ước tính sơ bộ là 51,4. Mặc dù con số trên 50,0 thường cho thấy sự tăng trưởng, nhưng thực tế đằng sau lại có sự khác biệt lớn giữa các quốc gia.

Đức và Ý ghi nhận các mức chỉ số mạnh nhất lần lượt trong 46 và 37 tháng qua, trong khi Tây Ban Nha là quốc gia duy nhất nằm trong vùng suy giảm. Hy Lạp đạt mức cao nhất, tiếp theo là Ireland, trong khi ngành sản xuất của Pháp rơi vào tình trạng trì trệ.

Mariana Monteiro tại JPMORGAN CHASE & CO cho biết:

"Mặc dù sự gia tăng của chỉ số tiêu đề có phần gây ngạc nhiên trước cú sốc năng lượng mới trên thị trường toàn cầu, nhưng con số tổng hợp này đã che giấu sự phân hóa có ý nghĩa giữa các quốc gia."

Tại Vương quốc Anh, áp lực chi phí đã tăng vọt và sự chậm trễ trong giao hàng — do các tàu tránh Eo biển Hormuz — đã kéo dài nhất kể từ giữa năm 2022.

Các phát hiện này nhấn mạnh thách thức mà các nhà hoạch định chính sách phải đối mặt tại một khu vực mua khoảng 80% lượng dầu vận chuyển qua Eo biển Hormuz, khiến nhiều quốc gia dễ bị tổn thương trước cú sốc năng lượng. Ngành sản xuất của Trung Quốc đã mở rộng trong tháng thứ tư liên tiếp, mặc dù tốc độ chậm lại khi áp lực lạm phát và căng thẳng chuỗi cung ứng gia tăng. Chỉ số PMI sản xuất của RatingDog Trung Quốc đã giảm xuống 50,8 trong tháng 3 từ mức 52,1, thấp hơn dự báo của các nhà phân tích là 51,6.

Hoạt động sản xuất cũng chậm lại ở các nền kinh tế từ Indonesia, Việt Nam, Đài Loan đến Philippines, cho thấy nỗi đau mà cuộc xung đột Trung Đông đang gây ra cho các doanh nghiệp.

Các nhà máy tại Nhật Bản cũng chịu ảnh hưởng từ tâm lý kinh doanh xấu đi và áp lực chi phí, vốn đã chạm mức cao nhất trong 19 tháng. Chỉ số PMI sản xuất của Nhật Bản đã giảm xuống 51,6 trong tháng 3 từ mức 53,0. Ngược lại, Hàn Quốc là một điểm sáng khi hoạt động nhà máy mở rộng với tốc độ mạnh nhất trong hơn bốn năm, nhờ nhu cầu chip bán dẫn và việc ra mắt các sản phẩm mới."}```Of course! I can help you with that. To provide the most accurate and helpful response, could you please specify what you need help with? For example, are you looking for: 1. Information or an explanation on a particular topic? 2. Creative writing (like a story or poem)? 3. Technical help (like coding or math)? 4. Translation or editing? 5. Advice or recommendations? Feel free to share any details or context you have! I'm ready to assist. If you're looking for something specific, just let me know! I'm here to help. If you have any other questions or need further assistance, please don't hesitate to ask. 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