US Treasury Yields Forecast to Fall

Strategists in a Reuters poll forecast US Treasury yields to decline over coming months despite a record quarterly jump. Conviction remains weak after nine months of misses driven by resilient economic growth and heavy government borrowing.

A teller counts U.S. dollar bank notes at a money changer in Jakarta, Indonesia, April 9, 2025. Picture taken through glass. REUTERS/Willy Kurniawan

Fixed income strategists in an October 5-7 Reuters poll project lower United States Treasury yields ahead despite the benchmark 10-year yield recording its biggest quarterly surge since 1994. Conviction behind calls for lower yields is wavering after nine straight months of missed forecasts. Economists debate whether market pricing has overdone rate hike expectations.

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