Uganda lowers growth forecast for upcoming financial year as oil production outlook shifts

The finance ministry has lowered its GDP growth forecast to 6.5-7 percent for the upcoming financial year. This follows a previous projection of 10.4 percent.

Insights:
The finance ministry of Uganda UGUG has announced a downward revision to the national economic growth forecast for the financial year beginning in July. According to a statement posted on the X platform late on Thursday, the ministry now expects the economy to expand by a range of 6.5% to 7%. This new projection represents a sharp decrease from the 10.4% growth rate previously estimated in a December budget paper.
An aerial view shows residential neighborhoods in Kampala, Uganda on January 17, 2026. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya
An aerial view shows residential neighborhoods in Kampala, Uganda on January 17, 2026. REUTERS/Thomas Mukoya
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