El Nino and Iran War Threaten Global Food Supplies

Meteorologists warn that a severe El Nino and the Iran war will likely hit crop yields across Asia. Farmers face drought and rising costs for fuel and urea.

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Insights:

The global agricultural landscape is facing a dual threat as meteorologists warn of the strongest El Nino event in a decade, coinciding with severe supply chain disruptions stemming from the conflict in Iran. This convergence of climatic and geopolitical volatility is expected to bring hotter, drier weather across Asia in the latter half of 2026, threatening food security as farmers struggle with high fuel costs and a shortage of urea-based fertilizers.

Data from the weather bureau in Japan indicates a 70% probability of El Nino emerging during the northern hemisphere summer. Meanwhile, climate officials in China anticipate the phenomenon could persist through the end of the year, and India is bracing for its first below-average monsoon season in three years.

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