PayPal Forecast Misses Estimates Following Weak Holiday Results and Slower Branded Checkout Growth
PayPal reported fourth-quarter results below expectations and issued a weak 2026 outlook. Soft U.S. retail spending and slower branded growth hurt momentum.
Insights:
PayPal Holdings, Inc. reported fourth-quarter financial results that missed Wall Street estimates and issued a lackluster profit forecast for the upcoming year. The company recorded revenue of $8.68 billion for the quarter, falling below the $8.80 billion anticipated by analysts. Adjusted profit for the period ending December 31 reached $1.23 per share, which was lower than the $1.28 predicted by market experts according to data compiled by LSEG. Total payment volume for the quarter was $475.1 billion, representing a 6% increase on a currency-neutral basis.
The fourth-quarter shortfall was largely driven by a significant slowdown in the higher-margin branded checkout business of PayPal Holdings, Inc.. Growth in this segment decelerated to 1% in the fourth quarter, compared with 6% in the same period a year earlier. The company stated that the slowdown in branded checkout was caused by weakness in the US 
USretail sector, international headwinds, and tougher comparisons against previous years. These results arrived during a typically vital holiday quarter for payments firms, contrasting with the seasonal spending boosts usually seen at the end of the year.
USretail sector, international headwinds, and tougher comparisons against previous years. These results arrived during a typically vital holiday quarter for payments firms, contrasting with the seasonal spending boosts usually seen at the end of the year.
