Merck KGaA forecasts 2026 profit drop on patent loss

The pharmaceutical and technology group Merck KGaA, based in Germany, has projected a decline in its 2026 adjusted operating profit of up to 9.8%. The company cited a combination of unfavorable currency exchange rates and the expiration of patent protections for a key medication as the primary drivers behind the cautious outlook.

According to a statement released on Thursday, Merck KGaA expects its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA), adjusted for special items, to range between 5.5 billion and 6.0 billion euros ($6.4 billion to $7 billion) for the year. This forecast is a step down from the 6.1 billion euros reported for 2025. While the lower end of the guidance reflects potential challenges, the upper end aligns closely with analyst expectations, which had previously pegged earnings at approximately 5.9 billion euros.

A significant headwind for the group is the loss of U.S. patent protection for Mavenclad, a multiple sclerosis drug that provided substantial growth momentum in the previous year. The patent is set to expire in the United States this month, opening the door for generic competition.

Excluding the impact of foreign exchange volatility, the company estimated that the underlying development of adjusted EBITDA would fluctuate between a 4% contraction and a 1% gain. The family-controlled group continues to navigate a complex global environment as it manages the transition of its product portfolio following these patent shifts.