IMF raises Russia 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.1 percent

The International Monetary Fund has adjusted its economic outlook for Russia, increasing the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.1%. This update, up from a previous estimate of 0.8%, is largely driven by a significant rise in the price of Brent Crude Oil and other key commodities amid ongoing instability in the Middle East.

The Russian economy experienced a sharp slowdown in 2025, with growth dropping to approximately 1% from the 4.9% recorded in 2024. This deceleration was influenced by the central bank's restrictive monetary policy and international sanctions, alongside the fiscal demands of the conflict in Ukraine.

Economic prospects for the nation shifted after global oil prices spiked following a move by Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor for global oil supplies. This action came in response to military strikes launched by the United States and Israel that commenced in late February.

In Russia, higher commodity prices are projected to drive the 0.3 percentage point upward revision of 2026 growth relative to January, to 1.1%, with the momentum continuing to register another 1.1% growth rate in 2027, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook.

While the IMF has raised its outlook, the Russian government remains cautious. Officials indicated they might downgrade their internal growth forecast of 1.3% during an upcoming review, noting that the federal budget has yet to fully realize the windfall from commodity-related taxes. Recent data shows a contraction in economic activity, with GDP falling by 1.5% year-on-year in February and 2.1% in January.