IMF Raises Global Growth Outlook as AI Investment and Trade Adaptation Offset Tariff Impact
The IMF raised its 2025 and 2026 global growth forecasts to 3.3 percent. This shift reflects business adaptation to tariffs and strong momentum in AI spending.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its updated World Economic Outlook on January 19, 2026, revising global GDP growth forecasts upward for both 2025 and 2026. According to the report, the global economy is now expected to expand by 3.3 percent in 2025 and 3.3 percent in 2026. These figures represent a 0.1 and 0.2 percentage point increase, respectively, from the October 2024 estimates. For 2027, the IMF kept its global growth forecast unchanged at 3.2 percent.
This upward revision is largely attributed to the resilience of global trade and sustained momentum in the artificial intelligence sector. Businesses have demonstrated a significant capacity to adapt to the trade environment in the United States 
US following the return to office of Donald Trump donald trump. While the IMF had previously assumed a higher tariff burden, the effective United States US tariff rate is now estimated at 18.5 percent, down from approximately 25 percent in the April 2025 forecast. This reduction is the result of new trade agreements that lowered certain duties and the proactive rerouting of supply chain networks by global firms.
US following the return to office of Donald Trump donald trump. While the IMF had previously assumed a higher tariff burden, the effective United States US tariff rate is now estimated at 18.5 percent, down from approximately 25 percent in the April 2025 forecast. This reduction is the result of new trade agreements that lowered certain duties and the proactive rerouting of supply chain networks by global firms.
