Goldman Sachs raises March Brent forecast to 100 dollars
Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to average over 100 dollars this month due to Middle East conflict. Prices may ease later this year if supply flows resume.
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has significantly raised its oil price projections as geopolitical instability impacts global energy markets. Analysts now anticipate that Brent Crude Oil Futures will average more than $100 per barrel in March, with a subsequent forecast of $85 per barrel for April. The upward revision follows increased volatility linked to the conflict involving Iran and damage to energy infrastructure across the Middle East.
A major driver of the price surge is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime passage through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and natural gas supply flows. The strait has been blocked since February 28, following the start of the war involving the United States and Israel. Goldman Sachs warned that a two-month disruption of this route could elevate its fourth-quarter Brent price estimate from $71 to $93 per barrel.
As of Friday morning, Brent futures for May delivery were trading at $100.13 per barrel, marking a weekly increase of roughly 8%. Earlier in the week, prices reached a peak of $119.50, the highest level since mid-2022. While the bank expects prices to eventually retreat toward the low $70s later in the year, it noted that prolonged disruptions to oil flows could lead to higher peaks and sustained elevated levels through the end of the year.
In addition to near-term forecasts, the bank adjusted its long-term outlook for 2026. The price target for Brent crude was raised to $71 per barrel from $66, while the forecast for WTI Crude Oil Futures was increased to $67 per barrel from the previous estimate of $62.
