Brazil Inflation Tops Target Band in Early May

Brazil's 12-month inflation reached 4.64% in early May, exceeding the central bank's upper tolerance limit for the first time since October 2025. The rise in consumer prices, driven by food and housing costs, creates uncertainty regarding the pace of future interest rate cuts.

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Brazil annual inflation rose to 4.64% in early May, exceeding the central bank's 3% target with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1.5%. This marks the first breach of the target band since October 2025 and surpasses the 4.55% forecast by economists. The data pressures the central bank to slow or halt its monetary easing cycle as inflation expectations de-anchor.

Statistics agency IBGE reported on Wednesday morning that consumer prices rose 0.62% in the month to mid-May. While this slowed from a 0.89% increase the previous month, the figure beat the 0.53% rise expected in a Reuters poll. Food and beverage costs led the surge with a 1.38% increase.

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