Poll suggests ruling party landslide in Japan as markets weigh fiscal risks

A weekend survey suggests the ruling coalition will secure a large majority in the upcoming election. Financial markets moved as fiscal risks intensified.

Insights:
An Asahi newspaper poll released Sunday indicates that the Liberal Democratic Party in JPJP is likely to well exceed a majority of 233 seats out of 465 in the lower house, rising from its current 198 seats. Together with the Japan Innovation Party, the ruling alliance is expected to reach approximately 300 seats according to the survey. This projection comes just days before a snap lower house election scheduled for February 8, for which Prime Minister sanae takaichi dissolved parliament last month. sanae takaichi is seeking a mandate for expansionary fiscal policy, while the poll suggests the Centrist Reform Alliance could lose half of its 167 seats.
Japan's Prime Minister and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Sanae Takaichi makes a fist as she addresses party lawmakers during a meeting ahead of the dissolution of the lower house in Tokyo, January 23, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato
Japan's Prime Minister and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader Sanae Takaichi makes a fist as she addresses party lawmakers during a meeting ahead of the dissolution of the lower house in Tokyo, January 23, 2026. REUTERS/Issei Kato
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