Semiconductor trade cooling risks stalling US stock rally

The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index has gained 64 percent since March, sparking concerns that the artificial intelligence trade is becoming overextended. Investors are bracing for a potential pullback as the group now accounts for 18 percent of the S&P 500 weighting.

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Semiconductor stocks in the United States have surged 64% since the end of March, while the S&P 500 gained nearly 17% over the same period. This outperformance pushed the semiconductor industry's weighting to 18% of the S&P 500 as artificial intelligence infrastructure spending accelerates. The rally has sparked concern about overheated valuations, with technical indicators hitting levels unseen since the 1999–2000 tech bubble.

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