US job growth expected to rise in January as unemployment remains steady
Economists expect payrolls to rise by 70,000 in January while the jobless rate stays at 4.4%. Trade and immigration policies continue to weigh on hiring.
Insights:
A Reuters forecast released on February 11, 2026, indicates that nonfarm payrolls in the United States 
US likely increased by approximately 70,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 4.4 percent. This employment report, which was delayed by a recent federal government shutdown, arrives as the Bureau of Labor Statistics implements an immediate update to its birth-and-death model. The agency is also scheduled to publish an annual benchmark payroll revision, a move that materially affects reported payroll counts and changes the measurement of labor-market strength.
US likely increased by approximately 70,000 in January, while the unemployment rate is expected to have remained at 4.4 percent. This employment report, which was delayed by a recent federal government shutdown, arrives as the Bureau of Labor Statistics implements an immediate update to its birth-and-death model. The agency is also scheduled to publish an annual benchmark payroll revision, a move that materially affects reported payroll counts and changes the measurement of labor-market strength.
