UnitedHealth forecasts 2026 profit growth despite rising medical costs and low federal rate proposal
UnitedHealth Group set 2026 profit guidance above estimates as medical costs rose. A low federal Medicare Advantage rate proposal sent insurance stocks sliding.
Insights:
UnitedHealth Group announced its 2026 adjusted profit guidance today, forecasting earnings of greater than $17.75 per share. This figure marginally exceeded the analyst consensus of $17.74. However, the announcement arrived alongside data revealing significant cost pressures as the company reported a 2025 adjusted medical care ratio of 88.9%. This represents a 340 basis point deterioration from the 85.5% recorded in 2024, although it was slightly better than the analyst average expectation of 89.1%.
The earnings news coincided with a federal proposal from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for Medicare Advantage plans in the US 
USfor an average rate increase of 0.09% in payments for 2027. This proposal fell substantially below market expectations and triggered immediate stock declines of more than 8% for major insurers, including Humana Inc. , CVS Health Corporation , and UnitedHealth Group. The proposed 0.09% increase would result in more than $700 million in payments to Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, with the federal government expected to finalize these rates in early April.
USfor an average rate increase of 0.09% in payments for 2027. This proposal fell substantially below market expectations and triggered immediate stock declines of more than 8% for major insurers, including Humana Inc. , CVS Health Corporation , and UnitedHealth Group. The proposed 0.09% increase would result in more than $700 million in payments to Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, with the federal government expected to finalize these rates in early April.
