UK economic recovery strengthens as business activity hits multi-year high

Preliminary data from S&P Global released on February 20 shows that the S&P Global UK Composite Purchasing Managers Index rose to 53.9 in February from 53.7 in January, signaling a renewed expansion in business activity and consumer confidence. This latest reading represents the highest level for the index since April 2024, suggesting that the United Kingdom GB is on track for stronger GDP growth in the first quarter of the year.

The improvement in the economic outlook comes at a critical time for the UK government, as it directly informs near-term fiscal and monetary policy considerations. The data is expected to influence the upcoming budget update scheduled for March 3, as well as central bank rate expectations managed by the Bank of England. This timing is significant as it directly informs near-term GDP expectations and policy considerations, providing a snapshot of the current momentum within UK businesses and among UK consumers.