Shopify projects first quarter revenue above market estimates on resilient consumer demand

The e-commerce giant expects first-quarter revenue to rise in the low thirties. Consumer spending remains resilient despite new tariffs and rising prices.

Insights:
Shopify Inc. projected today, February 11, 2026, that its first-quarter revenue would grow in the low-thirties percentage range, a forecast that significantly exceeds market expectations. This guidance stands in contrast to the average estimate from analysts, which predicted a 25.2% increase according to data from LSEG. The announcement serves as a first-order earnings and outlook catalyst for the company, signaling a materially stronger revenue trajectory than previously anticipated by the market.
People talk at the exhibit for Shopify at National Retail Federation (NRF) 2026: Retail's Big Show, in New York City, U.S., January 12, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper
People talk at the exhibit for Shopify at National Retail Federation (NRF) 2026: Retail's Big Show, in New York City, U.S., January 12, 2026. REUTERS/Kylie Cooper
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