Prediction markets face major test in US midterms

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket face their biggest test as over one billion dollars is wagered on the US midterm elections. Platforms work to guard against misconduct and prove reliability amid growing scrutiny.

A screen displays a Kalshi advertisement on political betting featuring Senate control in New York City, US, October 27, 2026. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon

Prediction markets face their largest test during the United States midterm elections, with more than $1.48 billion wagered across platforms. The platforms amassed a global following after correctly signaling the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. Industry credibility now hangs in the balance as analysts watch whether the odds align with actual outcomes.