Powell says Fed forecasts face high uncertainty from war
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said today that the latest economic forecasts are unusually uncertain. He cited the Iran war as a major source of risk.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the media in the United States on Wednesday, highlighting the significant challenges facing economic forecasting in the current global climate. He noted that the central bank's latest economic projections are particularly difficult to solidify due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
During the press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Powell discussed the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). He characterized the current set of forecasts as being unusually uncertain, suggesting that the geopolitical instability has made traditional modeling less reliable than usual.
This is one of those SEPs where a number of people mentioned, if we were ever going to skip an SEP, this would be a good one, because we just dont know.
The Fed Chair emphasized that the volatility surrounding the war has created a shot in the dark scenario for policymakers. While the SEP remains a critical tool for communicating the central bank's outlook, the current geopolitical backdrop has introduced variables that are nearly impossible to predict with precision.
