OPEC data suggests minor oil surplus ahead of crucial output hike decision

OPEC projects a minor oil surplus in the second quarter as demand dips. This comes before a March meeting to decide on potential production increases.

Insights:
OPEC published its monthly oil market report today, February 11, 2026, forecasting that world demand for OPEC+ crude will fall by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter. The report, which indicates a small surplus for the same period, serves as a direct input to an upcoming decision by the OPEC+ group on whether to resume output hikes. This data is expected to be a primary focus when members meet on March 1 to decide if production increases should begin in April.
A model of an oil pump is seen in front of the OPEC logo in this illustration taken January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
A model of an oil pump is seen in front of the OPEC logo in this illustration taken January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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