Markets Expect July Fed Rate Hike Amid Iran Conflict

Markets now expect a Fed rate hike by July as the Iran conflict fuels inflation risks. Officials suggest that price stability is currently the main priority.

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Financial markets in the United States have experienced a significant reversal in interest-rate expectations over the past week. Current market pricing suggests a 75% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate hike by September, with better-than-even odds of a move occurring as early as July. This marks a sharp departure from just five days ago, when traders anticipated no rate increases for the remainder of the year and instead expected the central bank to reduce borrowing costs.

Ongoing construction work at the Federal Reserve Board building located in Washington, D.C., captured in late 2025. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo
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