Brokerages Hike Oil Forecasts as Iran War Continues
Brokerages raised oil price forecasts as the Iran conflict enters its third week. Analysts say prices may reach 100 dollars if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut.
Major financial institutions have significantly increased their oil price projections as the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran enters its third week. This geopolitical tension has triggered a surge of more than 40% in crude prices during March, prompting analysts to re-evaluate market stability and supply routes.
U.S. President Donald Trump addressed the situation on Sunday, emphasizing the need for international cooperation in the region to maintain maritime security.
"Nations relying heavily on oil from the Gulf have a responsibility to protect the Strait of Hormuz, calling on them to help protect ships in the vital waterway that Tehran has mostly blocked to oil tanker traffic."
Several major brokerages have revised their average price forecasts for 2026 and beyond. Barclays raised its 2026 Brent Crude Oil forecast to $85 per barrel, up from $65. The bank noted that if the Strait of Hormuz takes four to six weeks to normalize, Brent could potentially climb to $100 per barrel. Similarly, Goldman Sachs adjusted its 2026 Brent outlook to $77 from $71, while revising its WTI Crude Oil forecast for the same period to $72 from $67.
Other financial institutions have followed suit with upward revisions to their energy price targets:
- Bank of America (BofA) increased its 2026 Brent estimate to $78 from $60 and its WTI estimate to $73 from $62.
- HSBC raised its 2026 Brent projection to $80 from $65 and its WTI forecast to $76 from $61.
- Citi now sees Brent averaging $75 in the first quarter of 2026 and $78 in the second quarter, while UBS adjusted its Brent forecast to $72 from $62, warning that prices could move toward $120 if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.
- BMI also revised its Brent average for 2026 upward to $70 from $67.
Market analysts at Macquarie provided one of the most aggressive outlooks, suggesting that crude prices could potentially rise to $150 per barrel or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks. Meanwhile, ANZ raised its Brent forecast for the first quarter of 2026 to $100 per barrel, up from $90. Despite the immediate price spikes, Bank of America noted that prices could average $65 per barrel in 2027 as the pre-war surplus re-emerges in the global market.
