Italy lobby cuts 2026 growth forecast to 0.5 percent
Confindustria lowered its growth outlook for 2026 today warning that a prolonged conflict in Iran could trigger a recession. Inflation is set to reach 2.5%.
The economic outlook for Italy has weakened as the nation's primary business lobby, Confindustria, reduced its growth projections for the year. In its latest semi-annual report, the organization lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast to 0.5% for 2026, down from the 0.7% estimate issued in October. This follows a 2025 performance where the economy also expanded by 0.5%, marking the third consecutive year that the Eurozone's third-largest economy has seen growth remain below the 1% threshold.
The lobby attributed the downward revision to the potential for prolonged conflict in Iran. The current baseline forecast of 0.5% growth relies on the optimistic assumption that regional instability will subside by the end of March. This conflict escalated following military actions by the United States and Israel that commenced on February 28.
