Iran War Triggers Record Rise in Oil Price Forecasts
Analysts raised 2026 Brent crude forecasts to $82.85 per barrel following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The 30% hike is the largest in poll history.
The conflict involving Iran has triggered the steepest increase in annual oil price forecasts on record, according to a recent Reuters poll of 38 economists and analysts. The survey predicts that Brent Crude Oil will average $82.85 per barrel in 2026, marking a 30% jump from the $63.85 forecast issued before the outbreak of hostilities. This $19 upward revision represents the largest annual forecast surge since the monthly poll began in 2005.
In the United States, crude prices are projected to average $76.78 per barrel, a significant rise from the previous estimate of $60.38. Both global benchmarks have gained approximately 60% since the conflict commenced on February 28, with the market reacting to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This critical waterway handles roughly 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transit, and its obstruction has forced Gulf producers to reduce output.
