IEA Cuts Russian Oil Output Forecasts

The International Energy Agency reduced its outlook for Russian oil production due to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on energy facilities. Output is now expected to decline further through 2027 amid infrastructure damage.

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A model of an oil pump is seen in front of a Russian flag in this illustration taken January 9, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

Russia's crude output is projected to fall to 8.7 million barrels per day in 2026 following ongoing drone strikes from Ukraine on energy infrastructure. The International Energy Agency lowered its forecast by 125,000 bpd for 2026 and 235,000 bpd for 2027. The downward revisions reflect sustained pressure on refineries and production sites across the world's third-largest oil producer.

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