Edible Oil Prices Face Biodiesel and Demand Pressures

Analyst Dorab Mistry says edible oil markets face pressure from biodiesel hopes and weak demand. High prices have led major buyers like India to pause orders.

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Global edible oil markets are facing heightened volatility as energy supply disruptions in the Middle East bolster prospects for biodiesel demand. However, the price outlook remains tempered by subdued purchasing from major global importers, according to industry expert Dorab Mistry.

\"Wartime market behaviour is always very different and many developments come unexpectedly.\"

Crude oil prices climbed to a nearly four-year peak last week following tensions involving Iran, which threatened to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in response to actions by the United States and Israel. This energy rally has increased the attractiveness of vegetable oils for biofuel production, a sector where companies like RAJPUTANA BIODIESEL LTD operate.

\"Right now, edible demand is subdued as prices have jumped.\"

In Malaysia, palm oil prices have surged 14% this month to trade above 4,600 ringgit per ton, making it more expensive than rival soyoil in most regions. While energy-related firms such as Edison International monitor global shifts, Mistry previously projected palm oil futures to trade between 3,800 and 4,300 ringgit through mid-2026 due to ample supply.

Packets of edible oil displayed in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on March 24, 2023, as captured by Mohammad Ponir Hossain for Reuters.

India, the world's largest vegetable oil importer, has shown reluctance to make new purchases at these elevated levels, with refiners waiting for a price correction.

\"Indian importers have been hit after cutting inventories and washing out a large volume of previously booked imports.\"

Several soyoil cargoes from South America and the Black Sea were cancelled after global prices surged, as buyers found it more profitable to return shipments to suppliers rather than process and sell them in the Indian market. While limited import arrivals may support local prices, the upcoming harvest of mustard and rapeseed in India is expected to help mitigate supply pressures next month.

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