Middle East Conflict Forces Central Bank Policy Rethink

Rising oil prices and Middle East conflict force central banks to balance inflation risks with growth. Policymakers must now navigate a possible supply shock.

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The escalating crisis in the Middle East has dramatically altered the outlook for global central banks, presenting a severe supply shock that forces a difficult trade-off between supporting economic growth and curbing inflation. For emerging economies in Asia, the prospect of cutting interest rates has become increasingly risky due to rising fuel costs and the potential for capital outflows as trade terms worsen against the United States.

Smoke rises over Tehran following an explosion on March 7, 2026, during the ongoing conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran. Naser Safarzadeh/WANA via REUTERS
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