Fed Rate Hike Odds Double After Inflation Jumps

Traders raised bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike this month after data showed consumer prices rose 3.7 percent annually. The broader than expected price gains driven by energy costs raised uncertainty ahead of the upcoming policy meeting.

FILE PHOTO: View of the facade as construction continues on the Federal Reserve Board building, in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 17, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo

Traders in the United States priced a 45% probability of a rate hike after consumer prices rose 3.7% last month. That figure exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% target, driven largely by higher gasoline costs from the Middle East conflict. The unexpected broad-based strength forces investors to rethink the monetary policy trajectory ahead of the upcoming meeting.

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