China oil demand to fall 3.9 percent in 2026

China oil demand is expected to drop by 3.9 percent in 2026 marking a third consecutive annual decline. Sinopec research indicates refining capacity will also shrink as consumption falls.

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A satellite image shows the oil tanker Yug at Huangdao port in Qingdao, China, December 22, 2024. 2025 Planet Labs PBC/Handout via REUTERS

China's oil demand will fall by 600,000 barrels a day, or 3.9%, in 2026, marking a third consecutive annual decline. The drop highlights slowing consumption in the world's largest oil importer. For investors, weaker demand caps Brent Crude Oil prices despite supply disruptions caused by the conflict involving Iran.