China central bank likely to maintain lending rates while signaling potential for 2026 stimulus

The Chinese central bank is expected to hold key lending rates steady in January while signaling potential for future rate and reserve requirement reductions.

Insights:
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged for an eighth consecutive month in January 2026. All 22 respondents in a Reuters survey expect the one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPR) to remain at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively when the announcement is made on January 21. While the immediate policy stance remains steady in China CNCN, the central bank has signaled it has room in 2026 for further reductions in banks' cash reserve requirements (RRR) and for broader rate cuts.
Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in Beijing, China, on September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
Paramilitary police officers stand guard in front of the headquarters of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) in Beijing, China, on September 30, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang
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