Better than expected job gains bolster Federal Reserve case for extended interest rate pause

January job gains of 130,000 exceeded forecasts, giving the Federal Reserve room to maintain interest rates. Weak 2025 revisions still signal potential risks.

Insights:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its January jobs report today, February 11, 2026, showing that nonfarm payrolls in the US USUS increased by 130,000. This headline figure arrived alongside significant revisions revealing that average monthly payroll growth throughout 2025 was unusually weak, averaging about 15,000. These results have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold, as the anemic growth in the previous year suggests a cooling labor environment.
A woman passes by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., on March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
A woman passes by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., on March 13, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
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