Barclays cuts Novo Nordisk obesity drug sales forecasts after trial data underwhelms investors
Barclays slashed peak sales forecasts for Novo Nordisk's CagriSema by over 80 percent today. This follows trial data showing the drug trails Eli Lilly's rival.
Insights:
Analysts at Barclays PLC have significantly lowered their peak sales expectations for the next-generation obesity drug CagriSema, developed by Novo Nordisk A/S . The firm slashed its forecast to $2 billion from a previous estimate of $12 billion, marking a reduction of more than 80%. This revision was announced on February 24, 2026, one day after late-stage trial results indicated that CagriSema underperformed Zepbound, a rival treatment from Eli Lilly and Company .
The market responded sharply to the news, with shares of Denmark 
DK-based Novo Nordisk falling 16% while shares of United States 
US-based Eli Lilly rose 5%. This divergence underscores the shifting competitive dynamics within the obesity market as investors reassess the commercial potential of Novo Nordisk's pipeline. The downgrade is viewed as a major setback to the company's efforts to regain market leadership, particularly as it seeks to build upon the success of its existing drug, Wegovy.
DK-based Novo Nordisk falling 16% while shares of United States US-based Eli Lilly rose 5%. This divergence underscores the shifting competitive dynamics within the obesity market as investors reassess the commercial potential of Novo Nordisk's pipeline. The downgrade is viewed as a major setback to the company's efforts to regain market leadership, particularly as it seeks to build upon the success of its existing drug, Wegovy.
