Analysts expect long US Treasury yields to climb later this year amid heavy government debt issuance
Strategists expect long-dated yields to rise later this year due to inflation risks and heavy debt supply. Short-term yields should fall on anticipated cuts.
Insights:
A Reuters poll of 37 bond strategists released on February 12, 2026, indicates that long-dated yields in the US 
US Treasury market are expected to rise later this year. The survey, conducted between February 5 and February 11, found that 21 of the 37 respondents, or nearly 60 percent, anticipate this upward movement in yields. This outlook is driven by growing concerns regarding inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which currently maintains a $6.6 trillion balance sheet.
US Treasury market are expected to rise later this year. The survey, conducted between February 5 and February 11, found that 21 of the 37 respondents, or nearly 60 percent, anticipate this upward movement in yields. This outlook is driven by growing concerns regarding inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which currently maintains a $6.6 trillion balance sheet.
