WTO Expects Global Trade Growth to Slow to 1.9 Percent
The WTO expects global trade growth to slow to 1.9 percent this year as regional conflict impacts energy prices. AI trade remains a key but uncertain factor.
Global goods trade growth is projected to slow significantly to 1.9% this year, a sharp decline from the 4.6% expansion recorded in 2025. This forecast, released by the World Trade Organization (WTO), warns that the deceleration could deepen if the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to inflate energy costs and disrupt international shipping routes. Last year, a surge in artificial intelligence-related trade and the front-loading of goods to bypass a series of tariffs from the United States contributed to a better-than-expected performance.
While global trade remains resilient, the outlook is increasingly clouded by the expanding war involving Israel and Iran. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala addressed the situation directly:
