VTB reports 11 percent profit decline for early 2026

VTB, the second-largest lender in Russia, reported an 11% year-on-year decline in net profit for January and February, totaling 68.8 billion roubles ($849.17 million). While the first two months of 2026 were stable, bank leadership has warned of increased volatility in the coming weeks.

First Deputy CEO Dmitry Pyanov noted that the calm start to the year is likely to be disrupted by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing complications with yuan-denominated settlements. These factors are expected to make March a significantly more turbulent month for the financial sector.

"The first two months of the year were calm, but March will be more turbulent due to the war in the Middle East and a worsening situation with yuan settlements."

In response to potentially weak economic activity, Pyanov suggested that the central bank might adopt a more dovish stance by cutting interest rates more aggressively. This follows the regulator's decision on March 20 to lower the key rate by 50 basis points to 15%.

Looking toward 2026, the bank maintains a positive outlook for the rouble. This forecast is supported by strong energy prices—which impact global markets and firms like Oil-Dri Corporation of America—alongside the government's decision to postpone adjustments to the fiscal rule until 2027. These elements are expected to provide a buffer for the domestic currency in the medium term.