TotalEnergies expects Q1 earnings boost from oil prices

TOTALENERGIES SE announced on Thursday that it anticipates a substantial rise in its first-quarter earnings, driven by robust trading results and elevated oil prices. Despite the ongoing conflict in Iran resulting in a 15% reduction in the group's total production, the France-based energy giant remains optimistic ahead of its official financial report scheduled for April 29. The company's refining margin in Europe reached $11.40 per barrel during the quarter, representing a 192% increase compared to the $3.90 recorded in the same period last year. This figure remained steady relative to the fourth quarter of 2025. Market conditions were heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, with Brent Crude Oil futures hitting multi-year highs near $120 per barrel. This price surge followed military actions involving the United States and Israel against Iranian targets in late February, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These regional disruptions impacted infrastructure in Qatar, affecting liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities, as well as the SATORP refinery in Saudi Arabia, which is co-owned by the French group. Although the company lost approximately 100,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day in the Middle East, increased production in other regions allowed overall output to remain flat compared to the previous quarter. TotalEnergies reported that its upstream income benefited significantly from higher oil prices, while downstream results were bolstered by refinery utilization rates exceeding 90%. Additionally, the company noted that market volatility provided a significant boost to its LNG trading performance. Similar trends were observed by United Kingdom-based competitors BP PLC and SHELL PLC, both of which reported that price volatility enhanced their trading profits. In contrast, American peers CHEVRON CORP and EXXON MOBIL CORP experienced a more mixed impact. While higher prices aided their upstream divisions, their downstream operations were negatively affected by financial hedging transactions related to cargoes that could not be delivered due to the maritime blockades. Regarding other business segments, the Integrated Power results for TotalEnergies are expected to be approximately $500 million, while Marketing and Services are projected to remain consistent with the previous year's performance. The company also anticipates a working capital build of $5 billion for the quarter, attributed to both seasonal factors and the impact of rising product prices on inventory values. Following the announcement, shares of the company were down 0.8% at 76.04 euros, recovering from an earlier intraday drop of 3.2%.