Traders bet on $150 oil as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut

Traders are increasingly betting that Brent Crude Oil Futures will surge to an all-time high of at least $150 a barrel by the end of April as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to block the Strait of Hormuz. Currently trading near $107 for May delivery, prices have risen nearly 50% since the outbreak of hostilities involving the United States, Israel, and Iran on February 28. This geopolitical tension has effectively paralyzed oil transit through the region, leaving markets highly volatile despite diplomatic efforts to resolve the crisis. Data from ICE reveals that ownership of call options—which grant the holder the right to buy June Brent futures at $150—has expanded tenfold over the last month. This surge in derivatives activity suggests that investors are positioning for a scenario that would eclipse the previous record of $147 a barrel set in 2008. Tim Skirrow, head of derivatives and energy at Energy Aspects, noted the significance of these market moves. > \"These calls are clear signs that investors see tail risk outcomes to the current conflict and are increasingly trying to manage those outcomes.\" Open interest for the April expiry $150 call options has climbed to 28,941 lots, representing nearly $3 billion worth of crude at current prices. A month ago, this figure stood at just 3,374 lots. Beyond the $150 mark, interest is also mounting for even higher strikes, with open interest for $160 calls reaching nearly 15,000 lots and some speculative interest appearing for prices as high as $300. With roughly one-fifth of the world’s daily oil supply currently trapped in the Gulf, the disruption has impacted physical oil prices, shipping costs, and insurance rates. While some market participants are holding put options between $45 and $70 as a hedge against a sudden de-escalation, the rapid accumulation of upside calls indicates a prevailing fear of further supply shortages and price spikes.