Extended Middle East Conflict Risks African Growth Slowdown
African GDP growth could fall 0.2 percentage points in 2026 if conflict persists. Supply disruptions for fuel and fertilizer risk a wider cost-of-living crisis.
African economies are facing the risk of a sharper growth slowdown this year as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East threatens to disrupt trade, energy, and fertilizer supplies. A report released on Thursday in Morocco by the African Union, the African Development Bank, and two United Nations agencies warns that a prolonged conflict could reduce the continent's GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points by 2026 if hostilities persist for more than six months.
The report, presented at the U.N. Economic Commission meeting in Tangier, highlights that the disruption to shipping routes and essential supplies could quickly escalate into a cost-of-living crisis. While the specific impact on inflation was not quantified, the volatility in prices for Brent Crude Oil and Natural Gas remains a primary concern for food and fuel security across the region.
