Allianz Trade survey shows German export optimism holds

Exporters in Germany remain largely optimistic about their prospects for international sales growth, despite the ongoing conflict in Iran. A survey conducted by Allianz Trade indicates that while geopolitical risks and supply chain concerns are on the rise, the majority of German firms still anticipate revenue increases in the coming years. The study, which included 6,000 companies across 13 global markets, found that 83% of German exporters expect their revenues to grow by 2026, a figure that sits above the global average of 75%. Despite this high level of confidence, many firms are bracing for only moderate growth over the next 12 months, reflecting a fragile sentiment influenced by various global pressures. Interestingly, trade tensions involving the United States appear to be a greater concern for German businesses than the immediate impact of the Middle Eastern conflict. Nearly half of the exporters surveyed expressed pessimism regarding the fallout from the U.S. trade war, with 49% expecting negative consequences for their operations in 2026. This concern has intensified since the announcement of tariff plans by the U.S. administration a year ago. Beyond geopolitical tensions, German companies are increasingly worried about financial risks. Approximately 50% of exporters expect a decline in payment reliability, and 40% are preparing for an increase in payment defaults. The most significant threats to export stability identified in the survey include supply-chain disruptions and persistent payment delays. As a result of these evolving challenges, the strategic focus of German exporters is shifting. Europe and Asia are increasingly viewed as the most promising regions for future export expansion, while the appeal of the U.S. market has notably diminished.