Fraport Expects Higher 2026 Earnings Amid Regional War

The airport operator Fraport AG announced on Tuesday that while the conflict in the Middle East has caused localized disruptions, the overall impact on its global operations remains limited. During the initial two weeks of hostilities involving Iran, approximately 86,000 passengers traveling through Frankfurt experienced flight cancellations. According to CEO Stefan Schulte, only about one-third of the scheduled weekly connections between Frankfurt and the Middle East are currently operational.

Despite these challenges, the company, which manages the busiest aviation hub in Germany, maintains a resilient financial outlook. Fraport projects core earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) to reach approximately 1.5 billion euros this year, surpassing the 1.44 billion euros achieved in 2025. This forecast does not yet factor in potential long-term volatility resulting from the late February military actions involving the United States and Israel.

"We do not see any significant impact yet," Schulte said.

Direct traffic to and from the Middle East represented roughly 5% of Frankfurt's total passenger volume in 2025. However, the operator cautioned that the war has already contributed to higher jet-fuel prices and could potentially shift passenger flows or cause booking hesitation. Such geopolitical instability might also influence traffic patterns at the company's tourism-focused airports in Bulgaria, Greece, and Turkey, which handled a combined 80 million passengers last year.

For the current year, Fraport anticipates passenger traffic in Frankfurt to range between 65 million and 66 million, marking an increase of up to 4.4% over the previous year. Schulte indicated that a return to pre-pandemic traffic levels is expected by 2028, noting that last year's figures remained 10% below 2019 benchmarks. The expansion of the hub will continue with the opening of Terminal 3 on April 23, though the facility is expected to create a short-term drag on earnings of 300 million to 400 million euros due to increased interest and depreciation expenses.

Market analysts responded positively to the update, noting the company's strength despite high regulatory costs in the German market. Shares of Fraport rose 5% by the early afternoon following the presentation.