Shale producers resist ramping up output at $100

US shale firms will not increase output unless oil prices stay high for over a quarter. Executives cited long lead times and a focus on returning capital.

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Industry executives at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston have indicated that oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel are unlikely to spark a significant production increase in the United States unless those levels are sustained for more than a quarter. This cautious approach comes as global markets grapple with an energy crisis intensified by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has halted 20% of global oil transit, triggering a 50% surge in prices. Despite these pressures, shale producers are prioritizing capital returns to shareholders over rapid output growth, citing rising costs and maturing fields.

An oil pump jack operates within the Yates Oilfield located in the Permian Basin of West Texas, near the town of Iraan, captured in March 2023. REUTERS/Bing Guan
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