US dollar heads for largest weekly gain since October as Middle East tensions rise

The dollar is set for its best week since October due to strong jobs data and a hawkish Fed. Rising Middle East tensions are also lifting the safe-haven asset.

洞察:
The US USUS dollar has strengthened and is on track for its largest weekly gain since October, a move that is significantly shifting FX valuations and market positioning across major currencies. This rally is being driven by a combination of better-than-expected economic data, a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, and rising tensions between the United States and IR IRIR. As of February 20, 2026, the Dollar Index reflects this robust performance as market participants recalibrate their expectations ahead of key upcoming economic releases.
Recent U.S. jobs data and the latest minutes from the Federal Reserve have been instrumental in shifting interest rate expectations. This hawkish turn is clearly visible in the CME FedWatch tool, which has seen a repricing of the anticipated path for monetary policy. The dollar’s strength is a direct response to these evolving expectations, as the resilient domestic economy suggests a potentially longer period of restrictive policy than previously anticipated by the markets.
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