Indonesia pursues high growth strategy as markets react to fiscal spending risks

President Prabowo is doubling down on high-spending policies despite market turmoil. Officials say the government has reached a point of no return on growth.

洞察:
The Government of Indonesia IDID is maintaining its commitment to large pro-growth spending programs despite a significant market downturn and warnings from international financial institutions. Index provider MSCI Inc. recently issued a warning that swept about $120 billion from the Indonesian equities market. This pressure on the $1.4 trillion G20 economy was further intensified when Moody's Corporation cut the country's bond-rating outlook to negative, citing concerns over fiscal expansion and investor confidence.
Under the administration of President Prabowo Subianto, officials are proceeding with ambitious initiatives including the $20 billion free meals programme, the establishment of red-and-white cooperatives, and the Danantara programme. State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi and other members of the government have signaled that the Prabowo administration will keep these measures in place even as the nation faces an already-elevated 2025 fiscal deficit. The combination of heavy fiscal expansion and damaged investor confidence raises risks of capital outflows and pressures on public finances amid already-high deficits and ambitious growth targets.
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