Economists expect ECB to hold rates steady through 2026

Most economists expect the ECB to hold rates at 2% through 2026 despite rising oil prices. Inflation forecasts have been nudged up due to Middle East tensions.

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Economists surveyed in a recent Reuters poll indicate that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its deposit rate at 2% through the end of 2026, despite growing inflation concerns stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Although global oil prices spiked by as much as 70% following the start of the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, the majority of analysts believe the central bank will resist immediate rate hikes.

Dark storm clouds gather above the European Central Bank building in Frankfurt, Germany, before a monetary policy meeting on June 6, 2024. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay
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